This CASH Coalition learning session featured Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO and Co-Founder of Helios AI, spotlighting how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is creating a cascading shock across global food systems. The session examined fertilizer supply disruption, energy and logistics cost transmission, planting-window exposure, and the implications for smallholder farmers and farmer-serving organizations.

Francisco explained that a significant share of global urea typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and that damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan production capacity will constrain global fertilizer supply. Even if shipping routes normalize, lost production capacity could take years to recover, creating prolonged pressure on input markets.

The discussion emphasized that timing is central to exposure. Northern Hemisphere farmers had largely purchased inputs before the disruption, limiting immediate impacts on U.S. and European planting. By contrast, farmers in Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia face heightened risk because their June–August input-purchase window coincides with the disruption. CASH members reported already seeing signs of stress.

Francisco warned that the crisis could shift from a price shock to a physical availability shock, in which key inputs cannot be secured at any price. The session closed with practical mitigating actions: pre-positioning fertilizer through bulk purchasing, expanding concessional credit for smallholders, and rapidly sharing ground-level signals on input access, distress sales, and emerging shortages.